hurf durf

[rone]

"By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."
        —Paul Krugman, 1998

Comments

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

I knew my indolence would come back to haunt me.

The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. (http://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/www.redherring.com/mag/issue55/economics.html)

What's interesting here is that he was half-right about the recession in "two or three years", but not about Europe or Japan overtaking the US (but they certainly drew closer). However, "ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly" is even more of a howler (well, it sounds silly, but not the way he meant it).

[nothings.livejournal.com]

Yeah, ok, I retract my "to be fair".