hurf durf

[rone]

"By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."
        —Paul Krugman, 1998

Comments

[prock.livejournal.com]

Were there a lot of porn fax servers in 1998 that I didn't know about?

[nothings.livejournal.com]

To be fair, has the Internet actually increased (or decreased) the GDP, as opposed to just shifting economic activity to slightly different channels?

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

Given how much more one can do over the internet than over a fax, it seems unlikely that their impact is even in the same ballpark.

[nothings.livejournal.com]

The way your response ignores my question confuses me.

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

Your question seems very ticky-tacky. It seems ridiculous to question whether the Internet has increased the GDP. From what i can see, economic activity shifted and then multiplied.

[nothings.livejournal.com]

You can interpret his claim either way (and since you don't cite it I don't know how he meant it). If he meant 'change any economic activity at all', then sure, he was wrong, hence my retweet. If he meant change the economy overall (e.g. GDP), which, 'to be fair', he might have, then "[citation needed]" on your "multiplied".

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

I knew my indolence would come back to haunt me.

The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. (http://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/www.redherring.com/mag/issue55/economics.html)

What's interesting here is that he was half-right about the recession in "two or three years", but not about Europe or Japan overtaking the US (but they certainly drew closer). However, "ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly" is even more of a howler (well, it sounds silly, but not the way he meant it).

[nothings.livejournal.com]

Yeah, ok, I retract my "to be fair".