It's unfortunate that there seems to be no way to pull this off without the obvious risk of someone choosing to bring about a desired outcome -- and payoff -- by influencing events themselves. Possibly with a gun. The concept of using markets to obtain objective information is a good one; that's what markets are good at... unless it's cheaper to change the rules than it is to follow them. So this market has more in common with the larger economy than you might think.
Sure it is. Keep the payoffs small. It's not worth flying a plane into the Dimona reactor if you're only going to get a few grand out of it. It's not worth doing even if you're getting a lot of money, actually, but some people don't value their lives like I do, gofig.
This reminds me an awful lot of various supposedly-defensibly-legal schemes for funding assassination (political or otherwise) proposed by various people in the libertarian lunatic fringe. Hope springs eternal, I guess.
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syntheid
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Date: 2003-10-07 05:12 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2003-10-08 10:40 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2003-10-07 11:37 pm (UTC)