let's be clear
May. 12th, 2006 02:15 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
The Singularity is the nerd version of the Rapture, and it's just as likely to happen, and it's just as embarrassing to write about.
The Singularity is the nerd version of the Rapture, and it's just as likely to happen, and it's just as embarrassing to write about.
no subject
Date: 2006-05-12 10:56 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 12:18 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 10:44 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-12 11:17 pm (UTC)s/just as likely to happen/totally awesome
s/just as embarassing to write about/going to involve a lot of robots
no subject
Date: 2006-05-12 11:18 pm (UTC)The Singularity Holds A Terrible Power
Date: 2006-05-12 11:24 pm (UTC)Re: The Singularity Holds A Terrible Power
Date: 2006-05-12 11:39 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-12 11:25 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 12:20 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 12:56 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 05:36 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 01:48 pm (UTC)Um, to go with the rubbery characters?
Date: 2006-05-13 02:13 pm (UTC)BEWARE: MINOR SPOILER
Date: 2006-05-13 07:07 pm (UTC)Given the above context, here's an example from Charlie's work. He wrote an "alternate world" short story, set in the era when Ollie North and Fawn Hall were big news, which had some cool ideas (IIRC, it was called A Colder war, or something similar). In that story, he has Americans studying a spysat image in which they are looking at bodies strewn around some Afghan hillside and speculating as to the cause of death. All very cool and dramatic, except that even the current spysats don't produce images with the kind of resolution needed to show severed arms and strange mutilations, and '80s satellites were such that they struggled to distinguish between similarly-sized warships of different types. I know he can cite the "It's an alternative world, technology is better there!", but it bugged the crap out of me.
Of course, I'm probably biased, because I worked with the guy, and saw him make factual errors about events in the UK on a particular newsgroup (the latter wouldn't have bothered me, except that he was an oldbie and his US readership would take his assertions as the Voice of God, on a newsgroup which normally exhibited severe pedantic tendencies) . . . This probably sounds like I dislike Charlie. Actually, I don't, but I've learned that he's a normal human, complete with an assortment of virtues and flaws, as opposed to some God of Writing. My reaction probably means that I should never spend any real time around my favourite authors. ;)
Re: BEWARE: MINOR SPOILER
Date: 2006-05-13 09:30 pm (UTC)Honestly, there are no Gods of Writing.
Re: BEWARE: MINOR SPOILER
Date: 2006-05-15 03:31 am (UTC)Once upon a time, I had an office mate who knew very much about pi and the calculation thereof. He read Contact. He was unhappy with the glaring mistake of generating pi one digit at a time. He wrote a testy message to Carl Sagan, explaining that a man of Carl's stature in the community should know better and do better. (For the non-mathematical, the well known algorithms for generating pi do so by doubling the number of calculated digits each itteration.)
Carl, bless his soul, returned to star stuff.
My office mate thereafter figured out an algorithm that, you guessed it, generates pi one digit at a time...
Re: BEWARE: MINOR SPOILER
Date: 2006-05-28 03:43 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-15 03:25 am (UTC)asymptote
Date: 2006-05-13 12:43 am (UTC)sheesh.
Re: asymptote
Date: 2006-05-13 12:51 am (UTC)Wow! They taste great together!
Re: asymptote
Date: 2006-05-13 01:49 pm (UTC)How about both?
Date: 2006-05-13 05:21 pm (UTC)Re: asymptote
Date: 2006-05-15 03:32 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 04:51 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 05:42 am (UTC)I don't recall any novels which show the process of such a split.
no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 01:46 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-16 06:12 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 07:37 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 05:59 am (UTC)From our perspective, optimistic ol' me thinks we're more likely to run out of decent energy sources before we can get there (kinda hard to grow enough food when there's no petrochemical fertilisers, or to make microchips when there's no electricity). . . or maybe that would count as a different kind of singularity.
What I like is s.f. fans decided that there will be more oil
Date: 2006-05-13 02:22 pm (UTC)Most biologists of my acquaintence think we're headed for a big die-back in this century or the next.
I suspect that more people are Stone Age hunter-gatherers than you realize, just have better places to hunt and gather and only know the real science about whatever little bit they're maintaining. The advantage we've got is distributed maintence, both of knowledge and technology, not of people in general knowing all the details.
My favorite news photograph from the 90s was someone in full Amazonian regalia talking on a phone.
Re: What I like is s.f. fans decided that there will be more oil
Date: 2006-05-13 07:24 pm (UTC)My point about Stone Age hunter-gatherers isn't that they no longer exist or that they are stupid or inferior. As I understand it, the idea of the Singularity is that the "after" side is incomprehensible and unimaginable to those on the "before" side. I think that would apply to modern western society (technologically, politically and in other ways), from the perspective of the average SAHG.
This does not mean that they are unable to adapt to contemporary technology if they are exposed to it. After all, shitloads of people in this country, yours and many other nations happily use telephones without having the slightest idea of how they really work: when they dial the number of their best friend, they might as well be reciting a magic spell, for all they know about what actually happens within the phone, or the assorted telephone exchanges en route.
The above, and my earlier comment probably mean that I don't really believe in the Singularity, as presented by certain SF authors, in the sense that I don't believe in it as a sudden one-off event. Change is a process, it takes time, even if the rate of change can vary.
Re: What I like is s.f. fans decided that there will be more oil
Date: 2006-05-13 09:37 pm (UTC)I agree with you on the unlikelihood of A Singularity. The biggest changes were in the 19th Century, to electric communications, lighting, etc., and we've been making it easier to use near light-speed communications ever since, but the jump from 3 day to almost instantaneous happened in the 19th Century. The Net is only a bit more than deskilled telegraphy compared to the changes telegraphy made possible (coordinating rail transport for one).
no subject
Date: 2006-05-28 04:02 am (UTC)When in the real world, while people are often very stupid, usually they get kicked in the butt by economic dislocations early enough to keep everybody from just falling over and dying. There are exceptions, but they usually have to do with situations where there are absolutely no alternatives, which isn't the case with oil; there's nothing that can just be universally substituted for petroleum, but there are things that can replace most of its individual functions, usually at greater cost.
Whether the shock of doing that destroys civilization is more a question for economists than for biologists. I think it'll be interesting times but not piles-of-bodies-on-every-streetcorner interesting.
On the other hand, in another sense I think you're right: there is eventually going to be a die-back over the next couple of centuries, but it'll probably be because people stopped wanting to have more kids than they could support at a high standard of living, got their hands on effective birth control, and just died of old age. I hope the planet will eventually reach some kind of equilibrium where people can live well on what's available, but that's a long way off.
*There was a lot of this in Sixties New Wave and Seventies dystopian science fiction, too. I'm not going to cite the old strawman of "Limits to Growth" because it didn't actually predict the collapse of civilization by the 1980s, etc; those are misquotes, and what it actually predicted was pretty close to what's happening now. But global-disaster SF of the era often went overboard.
no subject
Date: 2006-05-13 07:43 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-16 06:22 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-05-22 12:11 am (UTC)