> Let's say that you voted for the candidate with 49% of the vote. What outcome have you produced?
That's a really great question, and the answer illustrates what I'm talking about. We don't vote with hindsight, knowing the result. We vote with limited foresight. The utility of our vote is anticipated utility.
The closer the election, the more likely it is that my vote will be the deciding vote, and the higher my vote's potential utility. If I'm coming into an election where it's likely that my candidate will lose by 1%, it's also reasonable to expect that my vote could tip the scales the other way. A vote cast in a 49/51% race is highly likely to effect the outcome.
On the other hand if I'm voting in a 4/47/49% election, or even an 8/45/47% election, it's clear that my vote for the 4% or 8% candidate is far less likely to effect the outcome of the election than casting that vote for the 49% or 51% candidate. Voting third party is a low utility vote for a foregone conclusion. Voting for someone guaranteed to lose lacks just as much utility as voting in a single-candidate race where the single candidate is guaranteed to win.
Here's what I should have asked, given that we can only judge the anticipated utility of a vote based on a count which has not yet happened:
Let's say your candidate is currently polling at 4%. You don't just commit to voting for them. You don't just publicly commit, hoping that others follow suit. You also commit to canvassing for them tirelessly. And you're so deluded that you believe that your vote, and your support, will double your candidate's vote count to between 4% and 8%. What influence do you anticipate that your vote and campaign effort will produce?
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
syntheid
no subject
Date: 2016-08-12 08:59 am (UTC)That's a really great question, and the answer illustrates what I'm talking about. We don't vote with hindsight, knowing the result. We vote with limited foresight. The utility of our vote is anticipated utility.
The closer the election, the more likely it is that my vote will be the deciding vote, and the higher my vote's potential utility. If I'm coming into an election where it's likely that my candidate will lose by 1%, it's also reasonable to expect that my vote could tip the scales the other way. A vote cast in a 49/51% race is highly likely to effect the outcome.
On the other hand if I'm voting in a 4/47/49% election, or even an 8/45/47% election, it's clear that my vote for the 4% or 8% candidate is far less likely to effect the outcome of the election than casting that vote for the 49% or 51% candidate. Voting third party is a low utility vote for a foregone conclusion. Voting for someone guaranteed to lose lacks just as much utility as voting in a single-candidate race where the single candidate is guaranteed to win.
Here's what I should have asked, given that we can only judge the anticipated utility of a vote based on a count which has not yet happened:
Let's say your candidate is currently polling at 4%. You don't just commit to voting for them. You don't just publicly commit, hoping that others follow suit. You also commit to canvassing for them tirelessly. And you're so deluded that you believe that your vote, and your support, will double your candidate's vote count to between 4% and 8%. What influence do you anticipate that your vote and campaign effort will produce?